Depression, Here We Come.....

There's only denial left now, at least, that's how I see it. In the last year, the DJIA has lost 46% of it's value (!) . Citibank has lost 95% of it's value. Bank of America has lost 90%. GE has lost 80%. Ford has lost 70%.

Here are my predictions for the year ahead:

Inflation (thanks to the nearly $3 trillion spending spree) is not far away and will be rampant. The low prices and great 'deals' that are to be had right now are going to end fast as competition diminishes due to manufactures leaving the market (bankruptcy, mainly), and production cutbacks by the ones who survive.

When inflation comes (likely within the next year), the housing market will lock up due to high mortgage rates (remember the 16% rates of the early 1980's? I think we'll be at least that high). The 1% of buyers who can make it through the lending requirements maze with their 20% cash down-payment will find that at a 15+% interest rate, even the 'cheapest' of homes is unaffordable. Many lenders will leave the market all together, as the uncertainty of inflation and judicial modifications of mortgage contracts makes the business just too risky. Homeowners are going to have to get used to staying in their homes for the next 25-30 years. They won't be happy.

Production cutbacks will lead to high unemployment rates. Foreclosures will dominate the real estate market (much more so than today). Pension funds and 401(k)s will be virtually zeroed out. States and local governments will struggle to make ends meet as property values nosedive.

A rise in crime and economic frustration will lead to civil strife. There will likely be riots worldwide as citizens vent their frustrations against the perceived 'elite' who got everyone into this mess (and who's tab we'll all be picking up).

In short, I predict a real depression is in our future. Right now, the economic pundits on CNBC and elsewhere are looking for a bottom to the market. 6 months ago they chortled at the thought of a severe recession. In the next 6 months, they will be using the 'd' word with regularity.

12 Years On, America Must Come To Terms With A Stranger In The House

It's hard to believe, but on August 6th JonBenét Ramsey would be turning 18. As a sad irony, her parents and brother were finally cleared of her murder by police just a few weeks before. Until the announcement last week that newly developed Touch DNA had cleared her family, they had lived under a crushing cloud of suspicion and innuendo for nearly 12 years. Sadly, Patsy Ramsey died before she was able to reclaim her good name and position as a victim rather than a murder and/or co-conspirator.

It's interesting to note that the DNA discovered by the newly developed Touch DNA process was not new. It matched DNA found in a standard 1998 DNA test on material that was found on JonBenét's underwear and under her fingernails. All of this DNA matched an unknown male, who is all but certainly her killer.

So now, other than starkly factual reports of the DA's proclamation of innocence, there's a deafening silence from the media. Pundits who either open or subtly accused the Ramseys are noticeably silent.

Perhaps the reason why the world was so quick to pass judgment on John and Patsy Ramsey is that the alternative was just too horrible to comprehend: An unknown, faceless predator entering a big, safe home in the middle of the night to carry out unspeakable horrors, staging a kidnapping (while lurking in the house for what was likely hours) then slipping away in the night while the parents slept. Where is he now? How many more victims have there been? Will there be? How much time have we wasted chasing dead-end leads?

I guess we'll have to wait for that horrible truth to fully sink in before we hear any apologies.