The Republican Party: Invasion Of The Body Snatchers?

I've watched most of the Republican debates over the last few weeks and I am just about as confused as the RNC must be right now. Which of these guys is actually a Republican? Or more accurately, "How did all these Democratic candidates get into the Republican debates?" A story in the Politico suggests that Sen. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are the best ticket for the Repubs. Wow. That would be a "good" ticket?. First of all, I am still somewhat astounded that a RINO like Rudy Giuliani is the leader of the pack, considering that he is pro-abortion (favors taxpayer funded abortions no less), is for same-sex unions, and is anti-gun. Overall, he's looks to be somewhat to the left of Hilary Clinton. Am I missing something here? Which "Republicans" are the pollsters calling anyway?

Will Iraq be the big issue in 2008? Survey says:....Yes...well, maybe

A recent Rasmussen poll says that 68% of Americans want to be out of Iraq within a year. Yet all the front runners, both Democrat and Republican, want to be more into Iraq. Hillary and Giuliani are the exact same type of war hawks as Bush, with both of them mirroring his current policies with regard to Iran in their campaign rhetoric. Only three candidates, Ron Paul, Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich are suggesting that the whole thing was a huge mistake. And all of them are polling in the single digits.

And how is Giuliani polling so high anyway? The whole thing begs the question that was brought up in the 2004 election. How big an effect are cell phone-only households having on telephone polling. In 2004 the alarm was sounded over the rise of cell phone only households. This caused great consternation for the pollsters as federal law prohibits automated dialing of cell phone numbers (used almost exclusively in telephone polls). In 2004, the error introduced by these people was non-existent: Polls matched actual results. However back then, cell only households made up just 3% of all households. Today 13% of all adults are using only a cell phone or VOIP. More importantly, 33% of 18-29 year olds only have a cell phone. None of these people are being polled. That's a huge concern, specifically for pollsters trying to gauge issues that revolve around a particular age group (elections anyone?). Those opinions might now show up in a telephone poll, but may at the ballot box. In June 2007, the Pew Research Center wrote:

The picture is not entirely positive, however. While the cell-only problem is currently not biasing polls based on the entire population, it may very well be damaging estimates for certain subgroups in which the use of only a cell phone is more common. This concern is particularly relevant for young adults. According to the most recent government estimate, more than 25% of those under age 30 use only a cell phone.

This might help to explain Ron Paul's huge internet support, near total dominance in Republican straw polls, but weak telephone polling. Interestingly enough, Paul has also done very well on text message polls, which would favor a younger more technically savvy audience.