Wednesday, January 09, 2008

National Media Wakes Up To The Polling Problem

As I predicted, the polling error issue is becoming a big issue in 2008. Amazingly, the pollsters blew the Democratic vote for New Hampshire.

Candidate Predicted % Of Vote (Rasmussen) % of NH Vote Within Margin of Error (95% confidence)? % Difference
Barack Obama 37% 36% Yes -2.7%
Hillary Clinton 30% 39% No 30.0%
John Edwards 19% 17% Yes -10.5%
Bill Richardson 8% 5% No -37.5%
Dennis Kucinich 3% 1% Yes -66.7%
Mike Gravel 0% 0% Yes 0.0%

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