Polling Results Vs. Real Results For The First Primary

Look at the predictions from Rasmussen (a highly respected pollster), versus the actual results. The margin of sampling error for this poll was +/-4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Candidate	Rasmussen Poll 12/17/2007 (%)	Actual Result (%)	% Difference
Mike Huckabee	28	34	21.43
Mitt Romney	27	25	-7.41
John McCain	14	13	-7.14
Rudy Giuliani	8	3	-62.50
Fred Thompson	8	13	62.50
Ron Paul	6	10	66.67
Tom Tancredo	2	0	-100.00
Duncan Hunter	1	0	-100.00

Giuliani's, Huckabee's, and Thompson's results all fell outside of the margin of error. Paul was on the very edge of it.